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TONIGHT'S RALSTON REPORTS: CD1 hopeful Chris Edwards, feedback on Steve Wynn, Reality Check time
DAYS SINCE HARRY REID HAS BEEN ON FACE TO FACE: 637
DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY: 22
DAYS UNTIL EARLY VOTING BEGINS: 5
DAYS UNTIL CD3 DEBATE ON F2F: 9
DAYS UNTIL THE TEEN CAN AFFECT THE POLITICAL WORLD: 269
Good morning, everyone. Tonight’s the night you’ve been waiting for in the Nevada Senate race: One hour on “Ralston Reports” between Sen....
President Obama leads 51-43 in Nevada, according to a Mark Mellman poll taken this week for Americans United for Change.
AUFC is a liberal, union-funded group, which may give GOP folks ammunition. But Mellman has a good track record here.
Is he right? We'll find out.
Memo linked here.
Darren Littel, an RNC operative helping lead the GOP effort here, tweeted this on Thursday: "In #NV absentee ballots GOP outperforming reg numbers by 7%, Dems under performing by 2 points"
Wow. That sounds huge.
But, as always, context is called for.
Republicans nearly always beat Democrats in absentee ballots -- they did by a few points two and four years ago. And mail ballots are a small percentage of the overall vote.
Republicans can't match the Democratic ground game (unions, etc.), so...
The numbers:
State: 11.8 percent
Vegas: 11.5 percent
Reno: 10.8 percent
Carson: 10.9 percent
Full report linked here.
The city of Fernley, which sued the state of Nevada over tax collections, has survived the first round of litigation and attempts to dismiss the case.
A judge refused to dismiss the case and allowed Fernley to proceed with discovery. The state and the Legislature, which intervened in the case involving consolidated tax collections and how they are apportioned, had tried to scuttle the case. But no dice.
I'm not surprised the Shelley Berkley campaign folks decided to release their internals with the "newspaper" (Sen. Dean Heller plus 6) and Rasmussen Reports (Heller plus 7) polls released today.
Neither of those surveys has been close to accurate in Nevada -- although perhaps 2012 will be the exception -- and Mellman nailed the 2010 race. He has Berkley, for whom he is working, up 3. They wouldn't show me the poll, but I have linked his memo, which derides other polling, here.
Heller may yet...
The diverse herd, populated by bulls branded red and blue, has moved in the same direction, a stray cow or two notwithstanding: The president won the debate.
I agree. But you know what? That doesn’t really matter.
What matters is what those unfortunately benighted undecided voters think – and there were few of those in the hall at Hofstra on Tuesday evening. Even more so than that small universe of undecided voters, what really determines the outcome now is how Democrats and Republicans feel –...
President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 7 percentage points in Nevada, according to a new survey by Democratic pollster Lisa Grove taken this week.
The poll, for Project New America, found Obama up 50-43, a few points larger than today's Rasmussen Reports poll (with a bizarre sample) that showed 50-47, Obama.
Republicans may discount the survey because of its Democratic trappings. But I have seen the instrument (memo linked here), the party/gender weighting looks right and Grove has done work in...