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We've settled into a pattern now in early voting in Clark County, with the Democrats gaining about 5,000 voters a day.
The total is now at a little more than 44,000 voters over the GOP, with six days remaining. Extrapolation gets the total to 70,000-plus by the end of early vorting, which is solid but not impenetrable, and also assumes the GOP doesn't do better in Week 2 or that the Democrats don't step it up even more.
The pattern in Clark has been the Democrats do better during the first week...
Welcome to The Weekly Report, where you find exclusive commentary and analysis. As always, I welcome feedback. Please tell me what you want and don’t want.
This week:
1. My column: The gamers spend big in state races, as do mining and chamber
2. By the numbers: One week of early voting in the books -- what does it REALLY mean?
3. State of the Races
4. Nuggets on the party PACs, the governor's out-of-state Texas pals, a case for GOP optimism in early voting and Spanish-language...
UPDATED: SOS has updated statewide numbers. Democrats up 10 in early vote, GOP has slight edge in mail. 350,000-plus have voted, 28 percent of all active voters.
The Democrats slowed down a bit on Friday in Clark County, extending their lead by 4,000 ballots, the party's smallest daily lead since the second day of early voting.
But combining their current early-vote lead -- 37,932 -- with their absentee ballot edge -- 1,904 -- and their lead after the first week in the South is 39,836 voters...
It's deja vu all over again.
The Democrats extended their lead in Clark County to about 36,000 voters over the Republicans with another solid day and another day where 30,000-plus voters turned out. It now seems reasonable to assume the lead will be 40,000 or so after one week.
With a week to go, that would put the Democrats about halfway to the lead they had in 2008 -- 83,000. I don't think they will get there, but they don't have to. Obama won the state by 12 points (Clark by 19) with that...
The NBC/Marist poll released today shows President Obama up 3 percentage points and Sen. Dean Heller winning by the same margin.
If the screen is lifted to include registered voters, the power of the Democratic machine is evident: Obama's lead doubles and Rep. Shelley Berkley catches Heller.
Some thoughts:
It's a huge sample -- 1,253 registered voters (MOE=+/-2.8 percent) and 1,042 likely voters (MOE=+/-3.0 percent). Lots of cell phone users, too, which is a good sign.
Seventy-one percent of...
A SEPTET OF THURSDAY NUGGETS:
Nugget No. 1 -- The American Action Network is going up with a new ad to protect Rep. Joe Heck in CD3, where he has a lead in nearly every poll but could be nervous about Democratic turnout. The spot is in English and Spanish, and is embedded below. (Heck also is responding to Oceguera's attempt to portray the congressman as weak on rape victims with a dramatic ad from his wife, who was a victim of domestic violence. Will post spot when I can.)
Nugget No. 2 -- I...
UPDATED: The latest statewide numbers are in. Bottom line: Democrats have a 9-point lead, almost 23,000 in raw votes. The state site is still not updating with Washoe mail ballots, where Republicans have had an advantage. Rural numbers are coming in strongly, with nearly a 2-to-1 advantage for GOP (19,975-11,211). It will be interesting to see if high early voting in rural areas, especially Douglas County, means there will be higher-than-usual cow country turnout or fewer rural voters on...
Mitt Romney campaigned in Nevada today for the second consecutive day. The question is: Why?
Any reasonable analysis of the early voting numbers so far shows that the Democratic machine is crushing the Republicans’ Rube Goldberg contraption. In Clark County, the Democrats have a 25,000-voter lead. Even in Washoe County, the Democrats are holding their own.
Why can’t Mitt get the message? As Boz Scaggs once crooned: Why pretend? This is the end.
But is it over here in Nevada?
The answer: Not...