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Some quick thoughts on the new Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling surveys for Nevada released today (caveat: both are robopollers and I am still a bit of a robophobe):
Rasmussen: 50-48, Obama
The usually GOP-skewed pollster had a better sample than usual, with 40-35, Democratic edge. His previous surveys here have had GOP advantages, not reflecting registration (D+7) or likley turnout. This one is much closer to reality, inlcuding a reasonable number of minority respondents (32 percent).
But...
UPDATED AT 9:45 AM: The SOS now has the following state numbers after a morning tally (not all numbers in for Day 4): 210,484 have voted by mail or early voting. 48 percent are Democrats and 35.5 percent are Republicans. The raw vote lead is about 21,000 votes. So if 90 percent of partisans are voting for each guy and let's say Romney is winning indies by 10 points (which would be big), he would still be behind by more than 13,000 votes.
After four days of early/mail voting, the Democrats have...
UPDATED: Democrats have a 1,700-vote lead in absentee ballots returned, so the urban county vote lead is above 20,000 (still don't have Washoe mail count.)
Democrats turned out 5,000 more voters in Clark County than the Republicans on Day 3 and the count was about even in Washoe County.
Clark saw another robust day of voting as 30,000 people turned out, bringing the three-day total to just under 90,000 voters -- that's more than 20,000 more than had turned out by this time in 2008.
The numbers...
So what do we know after two days of early voting?
Not a lot -- but something.
We know turnout was huge during that first weekend -- almost 60,000 voters turned out, 15,000 more than in '08 -- and we know that the second week is usually much bigger than the first (it was 50 percent greater in '08).
We know the Democrats are getting out their voters -- better than four years ago, in fact.
We know the Republicans are turning out much better than in '08 (a very low bar because John McCain had...
The numbers:
D Others R
31,401 9,683 18,106
That's 53-31.
In 2008, after two days, the total raw vote lead was 16,000, and it was 60-24.
So no wave, but still a substantial Democratic lead, and 7 points above registration. Democrats have turned out well above 2008 (27,000 vs. 31,000) but GOP has done even better relative to four years ago (11,000 vs. 18,000), albeit still well behind.
Democrats had an 83,000 raw vote lead at the end of two weeks of early voting...
I have been writing all season how much Nevada matters in the presidential race.
We have been one of a handful of battleground states all year long, and we remain a toss-up in most assessments. (I think the state leans to Obama, but that's me.)
I decided to have some fun, though, with the great site 270 to win.
I found two ways that Nevada really could matter. Take a look at these scenarios:
1. The first hypothetical involves President Obama winning Ohio but losing Florida, Colorado and most...