Ballotpedia on NV legislative races

The great folks over at Ballotpedia have produced some stats about Nevada's legislative races, which they have kindly shared with me and I now, equally kindly, share with you.

I still have to get used to 24-17-1 in the Assembly, although that will change after Libertarian John Moore is erased in November. 

Check it out (UPDATED WITH CHART, 12:30 PM, 3/31/16):

 

Elections

Primary: June 14

Candidates filed: 69D and 91R candidates running for 53 seats

 

Current chamber control

Senate: 10 Democrats and 11 Republicans

House: 17 Democrats, 24 Republicans, and 1 Libertarian

 

2016 election competitiveness:

 

  • In the Nevada State Senate, there are 10 Democratic incumbents and 11 Republican incumbents. One incumbent is facing primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There are two primary challenges taking place in the Republican primary.

  • In the House, there are 17 Democratic incumbents and 24 Republican incumbents.  Two state representatives are facing primary opposition in the Democratic Party.  There are seven primary challenges taking place in the Republican primary.

  • With these new figures from Nevada and other recent filing deadlines, what we have is an overall picture of 17.7% of Democratic incumbents and 20.4% of GOP incumbents facing primary opposition in all the state leg that have had filing deadlines.

  • Additionally, with 20 filing deadlines now past, the cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates will face no major party opposition in November in these states stands at 45.8%. This compares to 32.7% in 2010, 38.3% in 2012 and 43.0% in 2014.

  • The Nevada Senate has been identified by Ballotpedia as one of 20 battleground chambers we are watching in 2016.





 

Set 1; 2014 - 2016 raw data

 















2016

Seats

Dem open seats

GOP open seats

3rd party open

Total open seats

Inc Ds facing primary

Inc Rs facing primary

Total incs facing primary

1 major party candidate (D)

1 major party candidate (R)

1 major party candidate (I)

Total 1 major party

Total with major party opp

Senate

11

1

2

0

3

3

1

4

2

1

0

3

8

                           

House

42

2

7

0

9

3

11

14

2

7

0

9

33

                           

Total

53

3

9

0

12

6

12

18

4

8

0

12

41

%

     

Open seats:

22.64%

 

Inc in primary:

43.90%

 

Without MPO:

22.64%

With MPO:

77.36%

                           

2014

Seats

Dem open seats

GOP open seats

3rd party open

Total open seats

Inc Ds facing primary

Inc Rs facing primary

Total incs facing primary

1 major party candidate (D)

1 major party candidate (R)

1 major party candidate (I)

Total 1 major party

Total with major party opp

Senate

11

0

1

0

1

0

2

2

2

2

0

4

7

                           

House

42

6

3

0

9

5

6

11

8

7

0

15

27

                           

Total

53

6

4

0

10

5

8

13

10

9

0

19

34

%

     

Open seats:

18.87%

 

Inc in primary:

30.23%

 

Without MPO:

35.85%

With MPO:

64.15%



 

Set 2; Nevada data by percent

 










Nevada Only

2016 Primary Contests

2016

▵ 2016

2014

▵ 2014

2012

▵ 2012

2010

AVG all years

D

28.3%

7.5%

20.8%

--

--

--

--

24.5%

R

50.9%

13.2%

37.7%

--

--

--

--

44.3%

Total

39.6%

10.4%

29.2%

--

--

--

--

34.4%

                 

2016 Open Seats

2016

▵ 2016

2014

▵ 2014

2012

▵ 2012

2010

AVG all years

D

12.5%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

R

31.0%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Other

0.0%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Total

22.6%

3.7%

18.9%

-14.4%

33.3%

-17.6%

50.9%

31.4%

                 

2016 No MPO

2016

▵ 2016

2014

▵ 2014

2012

▵ 2012

2010

AVG all years

D

7.6%

-11.3%

18.9%

--

--

--

--

13.3%

R

15.1%

-1.9%

17.0%

--

--

--

--

16.1%

Other

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

--

--

--

--

0.0%

Total

22.6%

-13.3%

35.9%

15.5%

20.4%

11.0%

9.4%

22.1%

                 

2016 Incumbents in Primary

2016

▵ 2016

2014

▵ 2014

2012

▵ 2012

2010

AVG all years

D

28.6%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

R

60.0%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Total

43.9%

13.7%

30.2%

-3.1%

33.3%

14.1%

19.2%

31.7%



 

Set 3; 2016 data for states with filing deadlines and 2010-2014 for all states










All states (19)

2016 Primary Contests

2016

▵ 2016

2014

▵ 2014

2012

▵ 2012

2010

AVG all years

D

13.7%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

R

20.0%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Total

17.2%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

                 

2016 Open Seats

2016

▵ 2016

2014

▵ 2014

2012

▵ 2012

2010

AVG all years

D

14.5%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

R

14.0%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Other

52.9%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Total

14.8%

-2.2%

17.0%

-3.4%

20.4%

1.8%

18.6%

17.7%

                 

2016 No MPO

2016

▵ 2016

2014

▵ 2014

2012

▵ 2012

2010

AVG all years

D

18.8%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

R

26.0%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Other

0.2%

 

--

--

--

--

--

--

Total

44.9%

1.9%

43.0%

4.7%

38.3%

5.6%

32.7%

39.7%

                 

2016 Incumbents in Primary

2016

▵ 2016

2014

▵ 2014

2012

▵ 2012

2010

AVG all years

D

17.7%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

R

20.4%

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Total

19.3%

-0.8%

20.1%

-4.5%

24.6%

1.9%

22.7%

21.7%

 

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