UPDATE: Rural turnout is high on GOP side -- 25 percent of total. The rurals are 20 percent of total GOP registration. Clark is at 55 percent; registration is 60 percent. Washoe is at 20 percent; registration is same.
What does this mean? If you believe Sue Lowden will do better in the rurals because of Mark Hutchison's record on mining taxes, it could help her.
DAY 14, IT'S OVER: Big last day in the South: 8,707.Final Clark: 61,787 early and 13,315 by mail. Total is just under 10 percent. Raw numbers are slightly larger than 2012, but percentage lower because more voters registered.
Washoe: About 2,000 on last day in the North. 22,841 early and latest mail showed 2,073. So 11.4 percent. About the same as 2012.
Final rural numbers not yet available.
Election Day, I'd guess, will not add much more than 5 percent to these totals, unless the Reno mayor's race boosts northern turnout.
DAY 13, UPDATE: Latest statewide. As I said, just under 10 percent statewide. 111,000 have voted. If 60 percent vote before Tuesday, as is usual, that means about 180,000 total will turn out. 16 percent.
DAY 13: Spikes in both urban areas. Biggest day yet in Clark -- 5,618. More than 53,000 have now voted early. Add in mail and total is closing in on 66,000, or 9 percent. Washoe had 2,520 turn out, its largest daily total, too. Total is now about 19,000 and with absentees more than 20,000.
Both urban areas will have about 10 percent turnout for early and mail balloting after today is over. Raw number comparisons:
Clark had almost 71,000 vote early in 2012, so it should be close; Washoe had a little more than 23,000, so it will be a little tougher to match that total.
DAY 12: That Reno mayor's race may be increasing Washoe turnout. Largest day so far -- 2,319 -- that still is not so...large. Without updated mail, total there is now 8.2 percent. Just under 100,000 total. Urban turnout just under 80 percent of total.
In Clark, a sight decrease from the day before: 4,799. Totals with mail through Tuesday: 7.7 percent
Think of it this way: More than half the total vote probably is now in for the primary. Scary.
As an example, consider just how few votes could determine some of these legislative primaries: 2,400 Republicaqns have voted in that one between Senate Minority Leader Michael Roberson and Carl Bunce. Assembly primaries have a fraction of that low number.
Cue the potential for wackiness.
DAY 12 UPDATE, 10:45 AM: Statewide is now 7.7 percent. 88,000 out of 1.1 million voters. Rural turnout significantly higher than urban, as expected, which could affect GOP primaries.
DAY 11: Three days left. Bit of a surge in Washoe on Tuesday: 2,116 people voted, which is about the number who voted the previous two days combined. Total now is 14,080. Last mail ballot count: 701. Total: Almost 7 percent.
In Clark, highest turnout yet, with 5,049. Total with mail counted through Tuesday: 53,745 or about 7 percent.
Extrapolation: Even if both urban areas get to 10 percent by the end of Friday, that means, based on past trends (55-60 percent or so turnout before Election Day) and lack of interest in this election, that 20 percent statewide turnout is unlikely, even though rural turnout is higher.
DAY 10: It ain't getting much better. 4,508 voted in Clark County on Monday, bringing the total to 37,610. For context, two years ago on the 10th day of early voting, 4,646 people voted in Clark. The numbers are eerily similar, and there are 85,000 more registered voters this time. Including mail, Clark total is now 6 percent.
No numbers posted yet in Washoe. UPDATED, 8:30 AM: 1,294 in Washoe on Monday.
Will update....
DAY 9: Update No. 2, 2:15 PM: 6 percent statewide after nine days. And remember more people will vote early and by mail than on Election Day. I doubt we match 2012 at this point.
The statewide numbers should be up later this morning.The latest from the urban areas, including absentees from Clark, show that turnout continues to mimic 2012. There was not a huge surge over the weekend, so we will see if there is during the rest of the second week of early voting. The numbers:
Clark: 33, 102 have voted in Clark and 9,404 by mail. That's 42,506, or 5.5 percent. In 2012, early and mail voting was 71,500. When all is said and done, it's going to be close.
Washoe: 10,670 have voted early and latest absentee (last Thursday) showed 508. Let's assume there about 600 mail ballots by now, so the total is about 11,300, or 5.2 percent. (It may be slightly greater, but only 776 people voted Sunday, so there does not seem to be much excitement in Reno, despite that 18-candidate mayoral contest. In 2012, 24,000 voted early or by mail in Washoe.
DAY 8: Slight bump on Saturday in Clark as mobile sites move into high-volume areas. Biggest day yet is still pretty small: 4,635 went to polls. Total: 29,179. If you add mail ballots returned (9,401), the total is now juat under 5 percent. Slightly ahead of 2012 pace, when overall primary turnout was 19 percent in Clark.
Washoe actually dropped Saturday from previous day. 1,53 on Saturday; total is 9,894, or 4.5 percent (absentees bump it up to 4.7 percent, although not updated since Thursday).
DAY 7: Biggest number yet on last day of first week in Clark: 4,137. Total for first week is almost identical to first week of 2012 -- 24,538. Turnout in 2012 was 16 percent, but high-volume turnout areas have yet to vote in Clark. Washoe is at 8,641, just under 2012 first week. So turnout is about 3 percent in Clark and 4 percent in Washoe -- a little more in both with mail. (Clark mail is a little more than 9,000, bringing total turnout to 4.3 percent. Latest Washoe mail not in, but as of Thursday, it was just over 500, so total turnout is now probably over 4.5 percent.)
DAY 6, ALL, almost all in: Statewide. 4 percent. GOP: 5.9 percent; Dems: 3.8 percent
DAY 6: The numbers are still very low. 20,406 now have early voted in Clark. For context, 24,844 voted early during the first week of 2012, and the overall turnout eventually was 16 percent. In Washoe, the total now is 7,236; in 2012: 8,979. With one day left, it's unlikely either county matches last cycle's totals for the first week. But Sun City still coming in Week 2.
Urban totals:
Clark (with absentees): 3.6 percent
Washoe (no mail numbers): 3.3 percent (probably closer to 4 percent with absentees)
THE LATEST STATEWIDE, missing three rurals: is here. 2.5 percent early vote, 3.3 percent with mail. This is low.
DAY 5, FIRST UPDATE: It's even below 2012 levels, when turnout was 16 percent in Clark County. Latest numbers: 3,168 in Clark on Wednesday (that's fewer than the day before) and 16, 535 total. That's 2.1 percent, up to close to 3 percent with absentees bringing total to 23,324. In Washoe: 1,600 voted Wednesday, slightly up from Tuesday. 5,918 total, or 2.7 percent.
In urban Nevada, Republicans clearly are more enthused, if that's the right word. (Democrats actually have returned more mail ballots in Clark.) The totals so far, including Clark absentees:
Republicans: 10,521 in Clark and 2,989 in Washoe, or 13,510. That's 3.3 percent of total Republicans.
Democrats: 10,191 in Clark and 2,184 in Washoe, or 12,375, or 2.6 percent of Democrats.
That GOP edge in Washoe is quite large -- 15 percentage points right now.
DAY 4, SECOND UPDATE, 11:30 AM: Washoe has updated its site: 1,415 voted Tuesday, 4,318, or just under 2 percent. Republicans have nearly half the turnout; Democrats have only 38 percent.
DAY 4, FIRST UPDATE: 3,447 folks (1,601-1,498, GOP) turned out in Clark County on Tuesday, so no enthusiasm yet -- 13,368 total, or 1.7 percent. Mail ballots now total 4,448 (2,048-1,948, Dem). So total Clark turnout is 17,816, or 2.2 percent. That's after four days or nearly a third of the total. So far, looks a lot like 2012, when Clark turnout was only 16 percent.
More numbers coming later Wednesday morning....
DAY 3 UPDATE FROM SOS, 1:45 PM:
Bookmark this link. It will be updated every morning.
Statewide totals for three days: 19,523 total mail (4,621) and early votes (14,902). That's 1.3 percent statewide early voting, 1.7 percent with absentees.
Regional EV breakdown on GOP side, which is only one that really is interesting:
Clark: 62 percent
Washoe: 20 percent
Rurals: 18 percent
But remember: The rural folks only have one day of data compared to three from the urban folks, who were open all three days.
DAY 3:
More activity on Memorial Day than on Sunday: 3,321 went to the polls in Clark. That compares to 760 in Washoe.
Total urban turnout after three days: 12,821. That's 1.3 percent.
Pretty much the same as 2012.
Add in Clark mail ballots so far and total is: 15,797, or 1.6 percent.
Republicans have a 4,450-4,329 lead in heavily Democratic Clark, and a 1,429-1,085 lead in Washoe.
Douglas numbers (only one day) show: Only 32 Democrats voted the first day and 291 Republicans. Similar numbers (73-291) on absentee ballots. Total turnout so far, inlcuding absentees: 2.6 percent!
In Carson City, one day's data: 294-115, Republicans. Add mail-ins and it's 454-216. Total votes: 798, including mail. That's 3 percent.
DAY 2:
Big drop on Sunday in both urban areas. 1,500 fewer voters in Clark, 1,000 fewer in Washoe
Early voting totals:
Clark: 6,597 voters, or less than 1 percent (add in mail and it's close to 10,000, or 1.2 percent)
Washoe: 2,143 voters, or 1 percent
It's almost even between Democrats (2,947) and Republicans (2,882) in Clark, where mail ballots are almost exactly the same. Considering Democrats have a 60,000-voter advantage, this shows how much more interesting the GOP side is.
In CD3, Republicans have a large lead (1,454-1,016) in a district that is evenly divided.
To show you how few votes will decide those two key state Senate primaries:
In Michael Roberson's district, where he faces Carl Bunce, 387 voters have turned out early and by mail.
In Justin Jones' district, where Vick Gill and Becky Harris have been going after each other, 283 people have turned out.
Extrapolations show that only a few thousand people will turn out in those races.
------
Not really.
Here are the numbers for the two urban counties:
Washoe: 1,560 total voters. 788, GOP; 565, Dems. (No mail ballot numbers)
Clark: 4,129 total (includes some from early today). 1,877, Dems; 1,781 Republicans
Clark mail so far: 2,976 total. 1,363, Dem; 1,336, GOP
So urban total turnout so far in tallies I have: 8,665, or less than 1 percent.
Yes, it's a holiday weekend. But this gives you a harbinger of what's to come, especially as all campaigns try to make a good showing on the first day.
This will be your place for early voting numbers, updated every morning throughout the fortnight.
Final, final 11 percent.
UPDATE: Rural turnout is high on GOP side -- 25 percent of total. The rurals are 20 percent of total GOP registration. Clark is at 55 percent; registration is 60 percent. Washoe is at 20 percent; registration is same.
What does this mean? If you believe Sue Lowden will do better in the rurals because of Mark Hutchison's record on mining taxes, it could help her.
DAY 14, IT'S OVER: Big last day in the South: 8,707. Final Clark: 61,787 early and 13,315 by mail. Total is just under 10 percent. Raw numbers are slightly larger than 2012, but percentage lower because more voters registered.
Washoe: About 2,000 on last day in the North. 22,841 early and latest mail showed 2,073. So 11.4 percent. About the same as 2012.
Final rural numbers not yet available.
Election Day, I'd guess, will not add much more than 5 percent to these totals, unless the Reno mayor's race boosts northern turnout.
DAY 13, UPDATE: Latest statewide. As I said, just under 10 percent statewide. 111,000 have voted. If 60 percent vote before Tuesday, as is usual, that means about 180,000 total will turn out. 16 percent.
DAY 13: Spikes in both urban areas. Biggest day yet in Clark -- 5,618. More than 53,000 have now voted early. Add in mail and total is closing in on 66,000, or 9 percent. Washoe had 2,520 turn out, its largest daily total, too. Total is now about 19,000 and with absentees more than 20,000.
Both urban areas will have about 10 percent turnout for early and mail balloting after today is over. Raw number comparisons:
Clark had almost 71,000 vote early in 2012, so it should be close; Washoe had a little more than 23,000, so it will be a little tougher to match that total.
DAY 12, update, 11:15 AM: Latest statewide. 8.6 percent.
DAY 12: That Reno mayor's race may be increasing Washoe turnout. Largest day so far -- 2,319 -- that still is not so...large. Without updated mail, total there is now 8.2 percent. Just under 100,000 total. Urban turnout just under 80 percent of total.
In Clark, a sight decrease from the day before: 4,799. Totals with mail through Tuesday: 7.7 percent
Think of it this way: More than half the total vote probably is now in for the primary. Scary.
As an example, consider just how few votes could determine some of these legislative primaries: 2,400 Republicaqns have voted in that one between Senate Minority Leader Michael Roberson and Carl Bunce. Assembly primaries have a fraction of that low number.
Cue the potential for wackiness.
DAY 12 UPDATE, 10:45 AM: Statewide is now 7.7 percent. 88,000 out of 1.1 million voters. Rural turnout significantly higher than urban, as expected, which could affect GOP primaries.
DAY 11: Three days left. Bit of a surge in Washoe on Tuesday: 2,116 people voted, which is about the number who voted the previous two days combined. Total now is 14,080. Last mail ballot count: 701. Total: Almost 7 percent.
In Clark, highest turnout yet, with 5,049. Total with mail counted through Tuesday: 53,745 or about 7 percent.
Extrapolation: Even if both urban areas get to 10 percent by the end of Friday, that means, based on past trends (55-60 percent or so turnout before Election Day) and lack of interest in this election, that 20 percent statewide turnout is unlikely, even though rural turnout is higher.
DAY 10 UPDATE, 11:40 AM: Statewide is now 6.7 percent.
DAY 10: It ain't getting much better. 4,508 voted in Clark County on Monday, bringing the total to 37,610. For context, two years ago on the 10th day of early voting, 4,646 people voted in Clark. The numbers are eerily similar, and there are 85,000 more registered voters this time. Including mail, Clark total is now 6 percent.
No numbers posted yet in Washoe. UPDATED, 8:30 AM: 1,294 in Washoe on Monday.
Will update....
DAY 9: Update No. 2, 2:15 PM: 6 percent statewide after nine days. And remember more people will vote early and by mail than on Election Day. I doubt we match 2012 at this point.
The numbers
----
The statewide numbers should be up later this morning.The latest from the urban areas, including absentees from Clark, show that turnout continues to mimic 2012. There was not a huge surge over the weekend, so we will see if there is during the rest of the second week of early voting. The numbers:
Clark: 33, 102 have voted in Clark and 9,404 by mail. That's 42,506, or 5.5 percent. In 2012, early and mail voting was 71,500. When all is said and done, it's going to be close.
Washoe: 10,670 have voted early and latest absentee (last Thursday) showed 508. Let's assume there about 600 mail ballots by now, so the total is about 11,300, or 5.2 percent. (It may be slightly greater, but only 776 people voted Sunday, so there does not seem to be much excitement in Reno, despite that 18-candidate mayoral contest. In 2012, 24,000 voted early or by mail in Washoe.
DAY 8: Slight bump on Saturday in Clark as mobile sites move into high-volume areas. Biggest day yet is still pretty small: 4,635 went to polls. Total: 29,179. If you add mail ballots returned (9,401), the total is now juat under 5 percent. Slightly ahead of 2012 pace, when overall primary turnout was 19 percent in Clark.
Washoe actually dropped Saturday from previous day. 1,53 on Saturday; total is 9,894, or 4.5 percent (absentees bump it up to 4.7 percent, although not updated since Thursday).
DAY 7: Biggest number yet on last day of first week in Clark: 4,137. Total for first week is almost identical to first week of 2012 -- 24,538. Turnout in 2012 was 16 percent, but high-volume turnout areas have yet to vote in Clark. Washoe is at 8,641, just under 2012 first week. So turnout is about 3 percent in Clark and 4 percent in Washoe -- a little more in both with mail. (Clark mail is a little more than 9,000, bringing total turnout to 4.3 percent. Latest Washoe mail not in, but as of Thursday, it was just over 500, so total turnout is now probably over 4.5 percent.)
DAY 6, ALL, almost all in: Statewide. 4 percent. GOP: 5.9 percent; Dems: 3.8 percent
DAY 6: The numbers are still very low. 20,406 now have early voted in Clark. For context, 24,844 voted early during the first week of 2012, and the overall turnout eventually was 16 percent. In Washoe, the total now is 7,236; in 2012: 8,979. With one day left, it's unlikely either county matches last cycle's totals for the first week. But Sun City still coming in Week 2.
Urban totals:
Clark (with absentees): 3.6 percent
Washoe (no mail numbers): 3.3 percent (probably closer to 4 percent with absentees)
THE LATEST STATEWIDE, missing three rurals: is here. 2.5 percent early vote, 3.3 percent with mail. This is low.
DAY 5, FIRST UPDATE: It's even below 2012 levels, when turnout was 16 percent in Clark County. Latest numbers: 3,168 in Clark on Wednesday (that's fewer than the day before) and 16, 535 total. That's 2.1 percent, up to close to 3 percent with absentees bringing total to 23,324. In Washoe: 1,600 voted Wednesday, slightly up from Tuesday. 5,918 total, or 2.7 percent.
In urban Nevada, Republicans clearly are more enthused, if that's the right word. (Democrats actually have returned more mail ballots in Clark.) The totals so far, including Clark absentees:
Republicans: 10,521 in Clark and 2,989 in Washoe, or 13,510. That's 3.3 percent of total Republicans.
Democrats: 10,191 in Clark and 2,184 in Washoe, or 12,375, or 2.6 percent of Democrats.
That GOP edge in Washoe is quite large -- 15 percentage points right now.
DAY 4, SECOND UPDATE, 11:30 AM: Washoe has updated its site: 1,415 voted Tuesday, 4,318, or just under 2 percent. Republicans have nearly half the turnout; Democrats have only 38 percent.
DAY 4, FIRST UPDATE: 3,447 folks (1,601-1,498, GOP) turned out in Clark County on Tuesday, so no enthusiasm yet -- 13,368 total, or 1.7 percent. Mail ballots now total 4,448 (2,048-1,948, Dem). So total Clark turnout is 17,816, or 2.2 percent. That's after four days or nearly a third of the total. So far, looks a lot like 2012, when Clark turnout was only 16 percent.
More numbers coming later Wednesday morning....
DAY 3 UPDATE FROM SOS, 1:45 PM:
Bookmark this link. It will be updated every morning.
Statewide totals for three days: 19,523 total mail (4,621) and early votes (14,902). That's 1.3 percent statewide early voting, 1.7 percent with absentees.
Regional EV breakdown on GOP side, which is only one that really is interesting:
Clark: 62 percent
Washoe: 20 percent
Rurals: 18 percent
But remember: The rural folks only have one day of data compared to three from the urban folks, who were open all three days.
DAY 3:
More activity on Memorial Day than on Sunday: 3,321 went to the polls in Clark. That compares to 760 in Washoe.
Total urban turnout after three days: 12,821. That's 1.3 percent.
Pretty much the same as 2012.
Add in Clark mail ballots so far and total is: 15,797, or 1.6 percent.
Republicans have a 4,450-4,329 lead in heavily Democratic Clark, and a 1,429-1,085 lead in Washoe.
Douglas numbers (only one day) show: Only 32 Democrats voted the first day and 291 Republicans. Similar numbers (73-291) on absentee ballots. Total turnout so far, inlcuding absentees: 2.6 percent!
In Carson City, one day's data: 294-115, Republicans. Add mail-ins and it's 454-216. Total votes: 798, including mail. That's 3 percent.
DAY 2:
Big drop on Sunday in both urban areas. 1,500 fewer voters in Clark, 1,000 fewer in Washoe
Early voting totals:
Clark: 6,597 voters, or less than 1 percent (add in mail and it's close to 10,000, or 1.2 percent)
Washoe: 2,143 voters, or 1 percent
It's almost even between Democrats (2,947) and Republicans (2,882) in Clark, where mail ballots are almost exactly the same. Considering Democrats have a 60,000-voter advantage, this shows how much more interesting the GOP side is.
In CD3, Republicans have a large lead (1,454-1,016) in a district that is evenly divided.
To show you how few votes will decide those two key state Senate primaries:
In Michael Roberson's district, where he faces Carl Bunce, 387 voters have turned out early and by mail.
In Justin Jones' district, where Vick Gill and Becky Harris have been going after each other, 283 people have turned out.
Extrapolations show that only a few thousand people will turn out in those races.
------
Not really.
Here are the numbers for the two urban counties:
Washoe: 1,560 total voters. 788, GOP; 565, Dems. (No mail ballot numbers)
Clark: 4,129 total (includes some from early today). 1,877, Dems; 1,781 Republicans
Clark mail so far: 2,976 total. 1,363, Dem; 1,336, GOP
So urban total turnout so far in tallies I have: 8,665, or less than 1 percent.
Yes, it's a holiday weekend. But this gives you a harbinger of what's to come, especially as all campaigns try to make a good showing on the first day.
Comments: