If you believe an internal poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, if you think it's more than name recognition after a statewide bid, if you believe this was released for any reason besides fundraising, then you need to increse your political education.
Lucy Flores crushing everyone else? Ruben Kihuen, Susie Lee and John Oceguera might as well get out now.
Here's the memo, courtesy of Politico Pro:
From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling
To: Interested Parties
Subject: Lucy Flores the Clear Democratic Front Runner in NV-4 Date: 6-21-15
A new Public Policy Polling survey of Nevada’s 4th Congressional District finds that Lucy Flores is the clear front runner to put the seat back in Democratic hands, leading all of her fellow candidates by at least 19 points.
Key findings from the survey include:
-In a potential primary field that includes Ruben Kihuen and Susie Lee, Flores leads them each by 22 points. She gets 30% of the primary vote, with each of them stuck well behind in single digits at 8%.
When you add John Oceguera to the potential field there is little change in Flores’ advantage- she leads him by 19 points with 28% to his 9% with Kihuen and Lee dropping back to 8% and 7% respectively.
-Flores notably has a commanding lead with almost every key demographic group in the Democratic primary electorate. She leads by at least 25 points with seniors in each match up, a key group particularly in primary elections. She also has a 17-19 point advantage over all her potential opponents with women, who are likely to account for nearly 60% of the primary electorate. She is particularly dominant with Hispanics, getting 49-54% of the vote from them and putting her 34-39 points ahead of her fellow opponents. But she also leads everyone by at least 18 points with African Americans and 15 points with white voters across the two match ups.
-Flores is by far and away both the best known and the best liked of the candidates in the race. She has 76% name recognition. More important though is how much more favorably Flores is seen than the other contenders- her 31% favorability rating is at least 19 points better than anyone else’s. Oceguera comes in at 12%, Kihuen at 11%, and Lee at 9%. Moreover, all of the other candidates are, at best, treading water, with negatives as high as or higher than their positives, whereas Flores is viewed far more positively than negatively.
Nevada’s 4th Congressional District presents Democrats one of their best opportunities in the country next year to pick up a Congressional race, and Lucy Flores is clearly the candidate best positioned to win the seat back. Her appeal to Hispanics and African Americans should help with some of the turnout issues Democrats faced in the district last year, and the fact that she’s such a well known and liked person to so many voters already puts her a step ahead in the fight to win back this seat.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 435 likely Democratic primary voters on June 17th and 18th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.7%.
If you believe an internal poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, if you think it's more than name recognition after a statewide bid, if you believe this was released for any reason besides fundraising, then you need to increse your political education.
Lucy Flores crushing everyone else? Ruben Kihuen, Susie Lee and John Oceguera might as well get out now.
Here's the memo, courtesy of Politico Pro:
From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling
To: Interested Parties
Subject: Lucy Flores the Clear Democratic Front Runner in NV-4 Date: 6-21-15
A new Public Policy Polling survey of Nevada’s 4th Congressional District finds that Lucy Flores is the clear front runner to put the seat back in Democratic hands, leading all of her fellow candidates by at least 19 points.
Key findings from the survey include:
-In a potential primary field that includes Ruben Kihuen and Susie Lee, Flores leads them each by 22 points. She gets 30% of the primary vote, with each of them stuck well behind in single digits at 8%.
When you add John Oceguera to the potential field there is little change in Flores’ advantage- she leads him by 19 points with 28% to his 9% with Kihuen and Lee dropping back to 8% and 7% respectively.
-Flores notably has a commanding lead with almost every key demographic group in the Democratic primary electorate. She leads by at least 25 points with seniors in each match up, a key group particularly in primary elections. She also has a 17-19 point advantage over all her potential opponents with women, who are likely to account for nearly 60% of the primary electorate. She is particularly dominant with Hispanics, getting 49-54% of the vote from them and putting her 34-39 points ahead of her fellow opponents. But she also leads everyone by at least 18 points with African Americans and 15 points with white voters across the two match ups.
-Flores is by far and away both the best known and the best liked of the candidates in the race. She has 76% name recognition. More important though is how much more favorably Flores is seen than the other contenders- her 31% favorability rating is at least 19 points better than anyone else’s. Oceguera comes in at 12%, Kihuen at 11%, and Lee at 9%. Moreover, all of the other candidates are, at best, treading water, with negatives as high as or higher than their positives, whereas Flores is viewed far more positively than negatively.
Nevada’s 4th Congressional District presents Democrats one of their best opportunities in the country next year to pick up a Congressional race, and Lucy Flores is clearly the candidate best positioned to win the seat back. Her appeal to Hispanics and African Americans should help with some of the turnout issues Democrats faced in the district last year, and the fact that she’s such a well known and liked person to so many voters already puts her a step ahead in the fight to win back this seat.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 435 likely Democratic primary voters on June 17th and 18th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.7%.
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