Dean Heller would win by 1 percentage point. The president would win Nevada again. Steven Horsford would defy the polls.
"Genius" is a word that is thrown around too easily these days....
In case you missed my predictions, they are here. My only real failing: I believed in the Democratic machine, but didn't realize the potency it would have down the ticket.
The scorecard:
President: I said 50-46. It was 52-46. That's pretty close and certainly within the margin of error.
U.S. Senate: I said 49-48. It was 46-45. 12,000 votes. And I had raised the possibility of a recount. Enough said.
CD3: I said Joe Heck, 53-45. It was 50-43. That is very close.
CD4: I said 49-47, Horsford. It was 50-42. I was off on the margin, although I picked the winner despite Horsford being down to Danny Tarkanian in every public poll. I underestimated the machine here.
State Senate: I said they would all be close (except maybe the Hammond-Ross race), so I really had no idea which way they would go. I was right. But I also said the GOP would go five for five; it went three for five. That was just a pure guess. I have no doubt the Democrats have the majority because of the registration/GOTV by the Democrats.
Assembly: I thought the Democrats would lose a couple of seats. (I did think Marcus Conklin might lose -- but I thought that after redistricting killed him.) It looks instead like a status quo election.
Ballot questions: I knew the tax questions would fail. I was pleasantly surprised the legislative/special sesson one did not.
All in all, I think I can keep my Pundits Club of America card.
Dean Heller would win by 1 percentage point. The president would win Nevada again. Steven Horsford would defy the polls.
"Genius" is a word that is thrown around too easily these days....
In case you missed my predictions, they are here. My only real failing: I believed in the Democratic machine, but didn't realize the potency it would have down the ticket.
The scorecard:
President: I said 50-46. It was 52-46. That's pretty close and certainly within the margin of error.
U.S. Senate: I said 49-48. It was 46-45. 12,000 votes. And I had raised the possibility of a recount. Enough said.
CD3: I said Joe Heck, 53-45. It was 50-43. That is very close.
CD4: I said 49-47, Horsford. It was 50-42. I was off on the margin, although I picked the winner despite Horsford being down to Danny Tarkanian in every public poll. I underestimated the machine here.
State Senate: I said they would all be close (except maybe the Hammond-Ross race), so I really had no idea which way they would go. I was right. But I also said the GOP would go five for five; it went three for five. That was just a pure guess. I have no doubt the Democrats have the majority because of the registration/GOTV by the Democrats.
Assembly: I thought the Democrats would lose a couple of seats. (I did think Marcus Conklin might lose -- but I thought that after redistricting killed him.) It looks instead like a status quo election.
Ballot questions: I knew the tax questions would fail. I was pleasantly surprised the legislative/special sesson one did not.
All in all, I think I can keep my Pundits Club of America card.
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