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And I thought Reid-Angle was hard.
For two years, I have rested on my laurels after ignoring the public polls, trusting my reporting and gut and predicting Harry Reid would defeat Sharron Angle. Now it’s time to once again leap into the oracular breach, with an even more difficult U.S. Senate race (yes, it’s harder to call this one based on data I have seen) and a state Senate matrix that is as blurry as can be.
Before I go over my 2012 forecast, a reminder of my record, so you can judge for...
Welcome to The Weekly Report, where you find exclusive commentary and analysis. As always, I welcome feedback. Please tell me what you like and don’t like.
This week:
1. My column: What the early voting numbers mean for a Romney victory in Nevada
2. By the numbers: The 2008 fallacy, and diving into other races
3. State of the Races
MY COLUMN—WHAT MITT ROMNEY NEEDS TO WIN NEVADA
Mitt Romney can still win Nevada.
But I have to believe with these numbers, some Republicans are now...
UPDATE: Statewide totals in. 700,000-plus have voted already. Doubt more than 1 million in all will vote. Democrats have a 48,000-vote lead. And the GOP only has a 1.1 percent statewide voter turnout advantage so far. The Republicans did a massive Tuesday effort for Romney to win.
A remarkable effort on the last day of early voting in Clark County by the Democrats pushed their lead above the 70,000 mark while another close day in Washoe left that county essentially even.
I will dive deeper into...
I ran into Steve Wynn, Sheldon Adelson and Karl Rove the other night at SW Steakhouse.
They generously offered to let me sit down and tape their conversation. That’s just the kind of guys they are.
Here’s what transpired:
Rove: “I just want to thank you guys again for all of the money you’ve given Crossroads GPS. We couldn’t have done it without you.”
Adelson: “You’re welcome, Karl. But are we going to win or not?”
Wynn: “Good question. Shelly. We’ve invested a lot with you, Karl, to get rid...
ood morning, everyone. So I went to vote yesterday and tried to vote for Gary Johnson and Wayne Allyn Root’s name came up! How could this happen? What is wrong with these voting machines? It’s a scandal! In case you missed the story, or my rant,here it is.
The jobs report is out – 171,000 new ones created, the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9 percent. Tough day for the GOP ticket with all of these unbiased analysts saying it’s a good report. The real question, though, dear Flashees: Does...
TONIGHT'S RALSTON REPORTS: Obama and Ryan in Vegas -- maybe one will come on tonight?
DAYS UNTIL I HAVE TO MAKE MY PUBLIC ELECTION PREDICTIONS: 3
DAYS SINCE HARRY REID HAS BEEN ON FACE TO FACE: 654
DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY: 5
DAYS UNTIL THE TEEN CAN AFFECT THE POLITICAL WORLD: 264
Good morning, everyone. I need to confess something: I ate a whole bag of candy corn last night, and it may affect my Flashingperformance today. It happens...
STATEWIDE UPDATE: The Democrats have just under a 41,000-vote statewide lead going into the last day of early voting.
Democrats gained about 6,000 voters on the penultimate day of early voting in Clark County while Republicans won Thursday in Washoe County by about 200 votes.
It appears the Democrats, who now lead in Clark by 61,000 voters, will have somewhere in the neighborhood of about a 40,000-voter lead -- perhaps slightly more -- in Nevada going into Election Day. If partisan voting...
Something happened today that made me very angry. Now I freely admit: I am irritable this time of year, what with the nattering partisans and obnoxious campaigns. And I’m not known for having the longest fuse on a good day.
But nothing – nothing – gets me from serene to volcanic faster than attempts to make people feel as if an election might not be clean. And in an all-too-familiar pattern, national Republicans are casting doubts on the integrity of the election process here.
And it’s not just...
In 2008, the Democrats took over the state Senate after some outrageous and despicable campaigns to oust Joe Heck and Bob Beers.
Thanks to outside spending, mostly by the state Democratic Party, the Republicans fell to a couple of ciphers boosted by a relentless mail campaign featuring ridiculous allegations, especially against Heck, that would have embarrassed people in any other profession.
But politics is one of those rare endeavors where bad behavior consistently is rewarded, just as bad...
Mark Mellman, who hit 2010 on the nose for Harry Reid, says President Obama is up 6 in Nevada, 50-44.
His memo on the poll for the Democratic front group, Americans United for Change, is posted here. Key stat: Obama is winning Washoe, which would kill Romney's chances. He's up 11 in Clark, according to Mellman's poll.
He's also crushing Romney among Hispanics by a 2-to-1 margin int he poll by Mellman, who is Rep. Shelley Berkley's pollster in the U.S. Senate race.
Mellman: "With the president...