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Darren Littel, an RNC operative helping lead the GOP effort here, tweeted this on Thursday: "In #NV absentee ballots GOP outperforming reg numbers by 7%, Dems under performing by 2 points"
Wow. That sounds huge.
But, as always, context is called for.
Republicans nearly always beat Democrats in absentee ballots -- they did by a few points two and four years ago. And mail ballots are a small percentage of the overall vote.
Republicans can't match the Democratic ground game (unions, etc.), so...
The numbers:
State: 11.8 percent
Vegas: 11.5 percent
Reno: 10.8 percent
Carson: 10.9 percent
Full report linked here.
The city of Fernley, which sued the state of Nevada over tax collections, has survived the first round of litigation and attempts to dismiss the case.
A judge refused to dismiss the case and allowed Fernley to proceed with discovery. The state and the Legislature, which intervened in the case involving consolidated tax collections and how they are apportioned, had tried to scuttle the case. But no dice.
I'm not surprised the Shelley Berkley campaign folks decided to release their internals with the "newspaper" (Sen. Dean Heller plus 6) and Rasmussen Reports (Heller plus 7) polls released today.
Neither of those surveys has been close to accurate in Nevada -- although perhaps 2012 will be the exception -- and Mellman nailed the 2010 race. He has Berkley, for whom he is working, up 3. They wouldn't show me the poll, but I have linked his memo, which derides other polling, here.
Heller may yet...
The diverse herd, populated by bulls branded red and blue, has moved in the same direction, a stray cow or two notwithstanding: The president won the debate.
I agree. But you know what? That doesn’t really matter.
What matters is what those unfortunately benighted undecided voters think – and there were few of those in the hall at Hofstra on Tuesday evening. Even more so than that small universe of undecided voters, what really determines the outcome now is how Democrats and Republicans feel –...
President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 7 percentage points in Nevada, according to a new survey by Democratic pollster Lisa Grove taken this week.
The poll, for Project New America, found Obama up 50-43, a few points larger than today's Rasmussen Reports poll (with a bizarre sample) that showed 50-47, Obama.
Republicans may discount the survey because of its Democratic trappings. But I have seen the instrument (memo linked here), the party/gender weighting looks right and Grove has done work in...
I first Tweeted about it this morning after reading a report from a New Haven daily (Unite Here boss John Wilhelm is a Yalie).
But, apparently after getting inquiries, the union made it official today in a news release. Sounds as if Taylor, the longtime local leader, will live here and not move back East:
UNITE HERE Union Leadership Transition
John Wilhelm, President of UNITE HERE Union for the last 15 years, is planning to step down at the end of November this year.
The UNITE HERE...
UPDATE: AFSCME just came in with a six-figure buy in Reno for the duration to help Rep. Shelley Berkley.
Also, big uptick in Spanish-TV buys, too, with ads starting this week from People for the American Way (Dem), the Hispanic Leadership Fund (GOP) and Unite Here (Culinary parent with a brutal hit on Mitt Romney.)
Catching up on some new buys in the public file (I extrapolated from what I saw):
Crossroads: Last week, the Rovian folks plunked down mid- to high six figures for a statewide buy...
In a polling memo surely designed to rev up the base and maybe raise a little money, Danny Tarkanian's pollsters expressed confidence this week in a missive headlined, "Tarkanian momentum grows."
The memo, attached here, from David Polyansky and Ed Goeas, says a survey they took last week showed the congressional hopeful up 10 percentage points over Steven Horsford. That's hardly an outlier as other surveys, including one posted on this site have shown the same, and Democrats are manifestly...
The Federal Election Commission will consider the audit findings on Thursday that show irregularities with 2010 U.S. Senate candidate Sharron Angle's campaign disclosures.
Highlights (full report linked here) of audit of "Friends of Sharron Angle" below:
Finding 1. Filing of 48-Hour Notices In its response to the DFAR, FOSA had no additional comments on this finding. The Audit staff recommends that the Commission find that FOSA filed in an untimely manner or failed to file 48-hour notices for...