Poll: Immigration reform could help Heck, Amodei

by Jon Ralston Tue, 10/22/2013 - 06:42

A pro-immigration reform group has poll results that indicate Reps. Joe Heck and Mark Amodei could benefit from backing a plan.

That may not be surprising -- it's less so for Amodei in a heavily GOP district . But the crosstabs show wide support for a comprehensive approach.

With all the usual caveats for an autodial poll -- and the samples actually skew slightly Republican -- Heck's favorable/unfavorable is not good: 41-45. This was taken, though, right at the height of anger over the government shutdown last week.

The full toplines are below, and the crosstabs are here and here.

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Magellan Strategies 
Nevada CD3 Immigration Survey Topline Results 
 
Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 
695n autodial survey of likely general election voters in Nevada 
Congressional District 3. The interviews were conducted October 
16th and 17th, 2013. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.71% at 
the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based 
upon past voter turnout demographics. 
 
T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter? 
Republican .............................................................. 43% 
Democrat ................................................................ 39% 
Independent ............................................................ 18% 
 T2. How likely are you to vote in the November 2014 general election? 
 
Extremely Likely ...................................................... 93% 
Very Likely ................................................................ 4% 
Somewhat Likely ....................................................... 3% 
 T3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Congressman Joe Heck? 
 
Favorable ................................................................ 41% 
Unfavorable ............................................................ 45% 
Heard of, no opinion ............................................... 13% 
 
Name ID ................................................................. 99% 
Hard Name ID ........................................................ 86% 
 
Never Heard Of ........................................................ 1% 
 
 
 
Thinking now about immigration reform… 
 
T4. As you may know, the House of Representatives is beginning to consider different 
immigration reform proposals. One option is legislation that would significantly increase 
border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure 
that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for 
legal status. If immigrants were to meet a list of requirements, they could eventually 
apply for citizenship. Knowing this information, would you support or oppose this 
legislation? 
 
Total Support .......................................................... 74% 
Total Oppose .......................................................... 21% 
 
Strongly Support ...................................................... 43% 
Somewhat Support .................................................. 31% 
 
Strongly Oppose ..................................................... 10% 
Somewhat Oppose .................................................. 11% 
 
Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 5% 
 T5. Would you support or oppose an immigration reform plan that ensures 
undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a 
criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they 
can be eligible for citizenship? 
 
Total Support .......................................................... 68% 
Total Oppose .......................................................... 30% 
 
Strongly Support ...................................................... 41% 
Somewhat Support .................................................. 27% 
 
Strongly Oppose ..................................................... 14% 
Somewhat Oppose .................................................. 16% 
 
Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 2% 
 
 
T6. If the Republicans in the House do not pass an immigration reform bill this year, 
would you be more or less likely to vote for a Republican candidate in the 2014 general 
election, or would it not make a difference in your decision? 
 
More Likely ............................................................. 24% 
Less Likely ............................................................... 37% 
No Difference ......................................................... 35% 
Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 4% 
 T7. If your Congressman Joe Heck worked with other Republicans and Democrats to pass 
an immigration reform plan that ensured undocumented immigrants currently living in the 
US pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes and wait a 
minimum of thirteen years before becoming eligible for citizenship, would you have a 
more favorable or less favorable opinion of Joe Heck, or would it not make a difference in 
your opinion of him? 
 
Total More Favorable .............................................. 40% 
Total Less Favorable ................................................ 24% 
No Difference ......................................................... 31% 
 
Much More Favorable ............................................. 27% 
Somewhat More Favorable ...................................... 13% 
 
Much Less Favorable ............................................... 14% 
Somewhat Less Favorable ....................................... 10% 
 
Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 5% 
 T8. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman? 
 
Female .................................................................... 53% 
Male ....................................................................... 47% 
 T9. Which of the following age groups applies to you? 
 
18-34 ...................................................................... 10% 
35-44 ...................................................................... 15% 
45-54 ...................................................................... 20% 
55-64 ...................................................................... 21% 
65 plus .................................................................... 34% 
 
T10. For statistical purposes only, what is your race? Press 1 if you are white, press 2 if 
you are Hispanic or Latino, press 3 if you are Asian, press 4 if you are African American, 
press 5 if you belong to another ethnic group. 
 
White ...................................................................... 78% 
Hispanic or Latino ................................................... 10% 
Black or African American ........................................ 3% 
Other ethnic group .................................................... 9% 
 
Survey Methodology 
This survey was conducted using automated telephone touchtone technology. 
The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a Nevada CD03 
voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon voting 
demographics from past Nevada CD03 general election cycles. The interviews 
were conducted on October 16th and 17th, 2013. Three attempts were made to 
interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of 
3.71% at the 95 percent confidence interval. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Magellan Strategies 
Nevada CD02 Immigration Survey Topline Results 
 
Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 
675n autodial survey of likely general election voters in Nevada 
Congressional District 2. The interviews were conducted October 
16th and 17th, 2013. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.77% at 
the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based 
upon past voter turnout demographics. 
 
T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter? 
Republican .............................................................. 49% 
Democrat ................................................................ 34% 
Independent ............................................................ 17% 
 T2. How likely are you to vote in the November 2014 general election? 
 
Extremely Likely ...................................................... 92% 
Very Likely ................................................................ 5% 
Somewhat Likely ....................................................... 3% 
 T3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Congressman Mark Amodei? 
 
Favorable ................................................................ 42% 
Unfavorable ............................................................ 33% 
Heard of, no opinion ............................................... 19% 
 
Name ID ................................................................. 94% 
Hard Name ID ........................................................ 75% 
 
Never Heard Of ........................................................ 6% 
 
Thinking now about immigration reform… 
 
T4. As you may know, the House of Representatives is beginning to consider different 
immigration reform proposals. One option is legislation that would significantly increase 
border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure 
that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for 
legal status. If immigrants were to meet a list of requirements, they could eventually 
apply for citizenship. Knowing this information, would you support or oppose this 
legislation? 
 
Total Support .......................................................... 72% 
Total Oppose .......................................................... 23% 
 
Strongly Support ...................................................... 41% 
Somewhat Support .................................................. 31% 
 
Strongly Oppose ..................................................... 11% 
Somewhat Oppose .................................................. 12% 
 
Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 5% 
 T5. Would you support or oppose an immigration reform plan that ensures 
undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a 
criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they 
can be eligible for citizenship? 
 
Total Support .......................................................... 63% 
Total Oppose .......................................................... 34% 
 
Strongly Support ...................................................... 36% 
Somewhat Support .................................................. 27% 
 
Strongly Oppose ..................................................... 18% 
Somewhat Oppose .................................................. 16% 
 
Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 3% 
 
 
T6. If the Republicans in the House do not pass an immigration reform bill this year, 
would you be more or less likely to vote for a Republican candidate in the 2014 general 
election, or would it not make a difference in your decision? 
 
More Likely ............................................................. 32% 
Less Likely ............................................................... 33% 
No Difference ......................................................... 31% 
Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 4% 
 T7. If your Congressman Mark Amodei worked with other Republicans and Democrats to 
pass an immigration reform plan that ensured undocumented immigrants currently living 
in the US pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes and 
wait a minimum of thirteen years before becoming eligible for citizenship, would you 
have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of Mark Amodei, or would it not make a 
difference in your opinion of him? 
 
Total More Favorable .............................................. 36% 
Total Less Favorable ................................................ 28% 
No Difference ......................................................... 31% 
 
Much More Favorable ............................................. 26% 
Somewhat More Favorable ...................................... 10% 
 
Much Less Favorable ............................................... 17% 
Somewhat Less Favorable ....................................... 11% 
 
Unsure or no opinion ................................................ 5% 
 T8. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman? 
 
Female .................................................................... 52% 
Male ....................................................................... 48% 
 T9. Which of the following age groups applies to you? 
 
18-34 ...................................................................... 11% 
35-44 ...................................................................... 12% 
45-54 ...................................................................... 19% 
55-64 ...................................................................... 25% 
65 plus .................................................................... 33% 
 
 
T10. For statistical purposes only, what is your race? Press 1 if you are white, press 2 if 
you are Hispanic or Latino, press 3 if you are black or African American, press 4 if you 
belong to another ethnic group. 
 
White ...................................................................... 81% 
Hispanic or Latino ................................................... 11% 
Black or African American ........................................ 2% 
Other ethnic group .................................................... 6% 
 
Survey Methodology 
This survey was conducted using automated telephone touchtone technology. 
The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a Nevada CD02 
voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon voting 
demographics from past Nevada CD02 general election cycles. The interviews 
were conducted on October 16th and 17th, 2013. Three attempts were made to 
interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of 
3.77% at the 95 percent confidence interval. 
 
 
 

 

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